The Jacksonville Jaguars will head to Nashville on Sunday to take on the Tennessee Titans in Week 18 odds. The Jags control their destiny and with a win, would clinch the AFC South title.
NFL odds opened with the Jags as 3.5-point road favorites for this divisional rivalry. Here are my best free NFL picks for Jaguars vs. Titans on Sunday, January 7.
Jaguars vs Titans odds
Jaguars vs Titans predictions
It’s always tough to handicap a game where you don’t know who will start at quarterback, and as of Friday, that’s still a question mark for both teams.
Jacksonville Jaguars head coach Doug Pederson told reporters that franchise QB Trevor Lawrence could be a game-time decision, which would give C.J. Beathard his second straight start. Meanwhile, Tennessee Titans rookie passer Will Levis has been limited in practice after leaving last week’s game with a foot injury, meaning Ryan Tannehill may get another kick at the can.
Ultimately, whoever starts at QB might not make as much of a difference as many think. Beathard is experienced and did a decent job last Sunday, whereas Lawrence struggled over the previous few weeks while trying to play through multiple injuries.
Levis may be a better downfield passer than Tannehill, but the rookie looks lost under pressure — which happens a lot behind this offensive line. Tannehill has tons of experience running this offense and completed 16 of 20 passes for 168 yards after taking over for Levis last week.
While the Titans were clobbered 26-3 on the road against the Texans last week, they’re back home for this showdown. They’ve played well at Nissan Stadium this season, going 4-3 straight up, with all of those losses coming in extremely close games against teams with winning records.
The Jags are coming off a 26-0 victory in Week 17, but don’t give them too much praise considering they played the last-place Panthers. Before that victory, they had gone 0-4 SU and against the spread in their previous four games. This is a Jacksonville side that has been struggling defensively (23rd in the NFL in defensive EPA since their bye in Week 9) and has two of its top receivers banged up.
The Titans are also a poor defensive team but they do an excellent job with their backs against the wall and have the league’s best red zone defense (37.9%). The Jags are 21st in red zone scoring percentage on offense (51%) with that number plummeting to 27.3% over their last three games.
The Titans are also a well-coached divisional foe that will be angry after a bad loss. We saw that anger from head coach Mike Vrabel in Tuesday’s press conference when he expressed how much he wants to win.
Mike Vrabel got a little hot here. For those who’ve bitched at his lack of emotion, he showed fire here. #Titans https://t.co/ukuwhjuIto pic.twitter.com/2tcpE6kGNC
— Paul Kuharsky (@PaulKuharskyNFL) January 2, 2024
This could be Vrabel and running back Derrick Henry’s final game with the franchise so I expect a highly motivated Titans team to show up. With the Titans going 7-2-1 ATS in their last 10 home games as an underdog, take them with the points.
My best bet: Titans +4 (-112 at DraftKings)Picks made at time of writing may not reflect live odds.
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Jaguars vs Titans same-game parlay
Titans +4Derrick Henry anytime touchdownEvan Engram Over 49.5 receiving yards
+425 at DraftKings
While Henry has definitely slowed down, he still made the Pro Bowl for the fourth time in his career. He also still has a nose for the end zone and has scored seven touchdowns in his last six games. Henry is an impending free agent that likely won’t be re-signed and with this likely being his last game for Tennessee, I’m expecting a proper send-off with plenty of carries.
Although Henry was held in check by the Jags earlier this year, their run defense has since regressed. Henry also has a history of destroying Jacksonville and prior to this season, he had rushed for 575 yards and six scores in his previous four games against them.
Evan Engram might have been one of this year’s biggest Pro Bowl snubs and leads all tight ends with 104 receptions for 884 yards. He has put together some fantastic performances in December, positing 82 receiving yards against the Bengals and going off for 95 yards against both the Browns and Bucs.
Engram has 60+ receiving yards in four of his last five games and with wideouts Zay Jones and Christian Kirk still on the mend, he should continue to see plenty of targets here.
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