There’s good news and bad news for both the Denver Broncos and Las Vegas Raiders ahead of their Week 18 meeting at Allegiant Stadium on Sunday. The good news is that whoever wins comes second in the division, but the bad news is that neither will make the playoffs.
Despite the Raiders never having lost to Denver since moving to Vegas, this is a game between two run-heavy teams with poor quarterbacks and there is no reason not to get on this Under early before it moves anymore in the NFL odds.
I break down the Week 17 NFL odds and offer my free NFL picks for Broncos vs. Raiders on January 7.
Broncos vs Raiders odds
Broncos vs Raiders predictions
I am not overthinking this game and hitting the Under at 38 before it moves any more south.
It opened at 38.5 and has already taken some under money with a few 37.5s popping up at the time of writing on Tuesday.
This is a game between two teams that love to run and will feature Aiden O’Connell vs. Jarrett Stidham.
The new Denver Broncos starter was nothing special last week vs. a bad Chargers defense. He finished 23rd in average intended air yards, 25th in CPOE, and 24th in third-down success rate. Denver already played at a Top-10 slow rate with Russell Wilson and things didn’t change with Stidham under center.
The Broncos will want to run the ball but will struggle vs. a very underrated Las Vegas Raiders run defense that ranks first in success rate since Antonio Pierce took over in Week 9.
Pierce is also fond of running with Zamir White who has 59 carries in his three starts, I can’t see Josh Jacobs coming back this week but even if he did, the Raiders will continue to run the ball.
Both teams rank in the bottom 10 in pace of play and each club is happy to lean on the run late with a lead so late scoring could be hard to find. On the season, the Raiders are 4-12 O/U on the fourth-quarter total.
Denver could also be without receivers Marvin Mims (hamstring) and Courtland Sutton (concussion) as both pass-catchers missed last week. If they can’t go, expect this number to drop more. This is shaping up to be one of the ugliest games of the Week 18 slate.
My best bet: Under 38 (-110 at bet365)Picks made at time of writing may not reflect live odds.
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Broncos vs Raiders same-game parlay
Under 38.5Over 3.5 field goalsLas Vegas -2.5
+650 at bet365
There are few props available for this game so this one is a little more creative than others.
There are no flat totals at 365, hence the 38.5. I’m getting a good multiplier with the Under and Over 3.5 field goals but if this game is going to sail to the Under, it will be done with FG attempts and not red-zone success. Vegas is starting to get some money which is turning the 2.5s to 3s. The Raiders are going to finish strong for Antonio Pierce and have the motivation factor in their favor.
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